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Weather Wednesday 7th August 2019

7 August 2019 Weather

Cowes Week Long Range Weather Forecast
Issued at 0800 Wednesday 7th August 2019

Low pressure has been firmly in control of our synoptic situation for the past week and will continue to be for the next 7 – 10 days.

These lows are tracking from quite far SW in the Atlantic across the UK and NE out into the North Sea. They are bringing with them plenty of heat, moisture and energy hence the strong winds we have had recently and the strong winds which are forecast. The current low will be replaced by the next over the weekend and another is forecast to follow on behind in the middle of next week. There will be respite between each low but there will also be periods of gale force winds.

Daily Forecast Summary

Wednesday 7th – SW 15 – 20 gusting 25+ knots, bright & blustery
Thursday 8th – SE 2 – 12 knots, warm & muggy with rain by evening around warm front
Friday 9th – Veering S – SW behind warm front, increasing from the SW throughout the day reaching average speeds of 14 – 18 gusting 25-30+ perhaps more, whilst cold front & smaller squall lines race through. Frequent squally showers.

Increasing again overnight (current timing) 20 – 30 knots from the SW, possibly more at times up to 40-45 knots around the squall lines.
Saturday 10th – Very windy all day, with little sign of any respite.
SW 25 – 30 gusting 35/40+
Squally showers clearing to sunshine

Wind conditions improve for Sun / Mon & Tues ahead of the next low Tuesday night:
Sunday 11th – SW 14 – 18 knots, gusting 20 – 25 at times around the odd shower, bright & sunny
(High tide Cowes 08:22 & 10:52 with low tide at 14:31)
Monday 12th – Veering west to north west for a time as one low moves away
Speeds 5 – 10 knots in the morning
Backing SW in the afternoon & increasing 10 – 15 knots
Tuesday – Remaining SW, 10 – 18 knots, bright & sunny just the odd shower

Increasing trend as the next low is due to hit Tuesday night: backing S maybe SE, 10 – 20 knot range
Wednesday – veering behind the warm front & increasing SW 20 – 30 knots+ possibly more

Eventually the winds will ease off again SW – W Thurs / Fri as the low tracks into the North Sea

I urge you to watch the synoptic charts this week, not just a single spot output from an app / grab file: it gives the bigger picture! The exact movement of that low & it’s fronts for Sat & Sun will not be exactly as forecast now, it only needs to track a little further to the north or arrive a little later and the area of strongest winds will move away from our race area or hit overnight rather than in race period. Equally they will also give you a visual indiction of the many fronts and squall lines forecast to hit the Solent, something a one line forecast simply can’t do.

Currently however the English Channel is forecast to be the windiest area where all that energy, heat & moisture is due to track overnight Friday & throughout Saturday.

Next Forecast 0900 Thursday 8th

Fiona Campbell

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